US Q1 Real GDP Growth - April 26, 2013

The US economy grew 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, falling short of consensus expectations of 3 per cent. Most of the shortfall in growth was the result of an 11.5 per cent drop in defense spending, which led US government spending lower for the tenth time in the past eleven quarters.  On the positive side, consumer spending posted its largest increase in two years, expanding 3.2 per cent.  

It is worth noting that today's release is a preliminary estimate and will be revised in subsequent months. The recent trend has been upward revisions and so it is likely that the US economy actually grew at a slightly faster pace than initially estimated. That said, we do expect some weakness in the second and third quarter of this year due to further declines in government spending. However, that weakness should give way to stronger growth later in 2013 and into 2014 when we forecast the US